Sensitivity analysis for concentrating solar power technologies

Abstract

There are potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere through the generation of elec-tricity from renewable energy sources. Wind power and photovoltaic panels are well-developed technologies now, and have achieved significant reductions in costs as their industries matured. Renewable energy can also be generated through large-scale solar thermal plants, whereby a field of solar collectors concentrate the sun's energy to heat a fluid that is then passed to a conventional steam generator. This technology is in a develop-mental stage, with the benefits from learning from experience with pilot plants, from mass production, and from innovation not yet obtained. The Australian Solar Thermal Research Initiative (ASTRI) is a federal government program to investigate technologies that will reduce the cost of electricity produced by concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. One aspect of the program is to develop a methodology to create a baseline economic model for the costs of typical CSP plants, and use this to assess the potential for cost reductions of research activities. Part of the methodology is the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by an ASTRI partner, the U.S.'s National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is an industry standard model for comparing the performance of solar thermal or photovoltaic plants. The analysis reported here, and the framework for the economic model for the ASTRI program, uses SAM and solar data from Longreach, Queensland. This paper reports on basic outcomes from the SAM model for two solar tower systems, one with storage and one without, comparing results mainly in terms of the levelised cost of electricity achieved by the plants. Standard settings for SAM are used, some of which are later systematically varied during sensitivity analysis on model inputs.