The end-to-end severe thunderstorm forecasting system in Australia: Overview and training issues

Abstract

An overview of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's end-to-end Thunderstorm Forecasting System is presented. This system relies substantially on three components: (a) the Na-tional Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance System (NTFGS), a software package that specifically displays those output fields from the 0.125° Australian operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model (MesoLAPS) that are particularly relevant to diagnosing thunderstorm potential out to 48 hours, (b) a nowcasting visualisation tool called 3D-Rapic, which displays volumetric radar data as well as output from radar-based algorithms, and (c) the Thunderstorm Interactive Fore-cast System (TIFS) for the dissemination of thunderstorm forecasts and severe thunderstorm warnings. TIFS can ingest algorithm-diagnosed thunderstorm positions and tracks which are automatically diagnosed from the radar data. An Australian supercell hailstorm case study is then pre-sented to showcase how forecasters can use the system out-puts to facilitate decision making at various stages of the se-vere thunderstorm forecast process. Training and assessment issues associated with implementation of the forecast systems are discussed. In particular, it is concluded that forecasters must have an in-depth understanding of the NTFGS and ra-dar algorithms for them to be used meaningfully. Such algo-rithms can facilitate the warning and decision-making pro-cess when used carefully in conjunction with the base data and other data types.