Water Resources Planning Under Deep Uncertainty and Multiple Criteria–An Example in the Senegal River Basin

Abstract

Water resources planning must take into account a range of interconnected and uncertain factors, including climate, technology, economic conditions, environmental concerns, and political systems. Conventional approaches to water resources planning often fall short when dealing with deep uncertainty—particularly uncertainties driven by climate change. This study introduces a novel framework for planning new water infrastructure using Engineering Options Analysis (EOA) to identify the most promising and adaptive development pathways. The framework differentiates between deep and statistical uncertainties and evaluates alternatives across thousands of potential future scenarios using Net Present Value (NPV) analysis and the Monte Carlo Temporal Analytic Hierarchy Process (MC-TAHP). To enhance decision-making, the framework incorporates two key managerial options—delay and cancellation—enabling the identification of pathways that are both robust and flexible. The approach is applied to the Senegal River Basin, where it successfully identifies three flexible development pathways. The findings show that integrating flexibility into planning can substantially improve system robustness by hedging against the risks of undesirable outcomes while maintaining opportunities for high performance. For instance, adding flexibility to KBG development pathway (the sequential construction of the Koukoutamba, Boureya, and Gourbassi dams) simultaneously reduces downside risk by raising the 10th percentile aggregated performance score from 0.19 to 0.35, and enhances upside potential by increasing the 90th percentile score from 0.89 to 0.96.