Prediction of Future Temperature and Rainfall Characteristics using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for Pondok Tanjung Station in Kurau River Basin

Abstract

Climate change phenomena and its impact on water cycle have been in recent decades. Due to climate change effects, temperature and its daily extreme as well as rainfall are changing. Bukit Merah is a focal point for the tourism sector and agriculture (paddy irrigation). However, this area is affected by climate change when it is affected by low water levels in the dry season and dangerous water levels in monsoon that cause floods. This study describes the application of statistical downscaling model (SDSM) models for prediction of future rainfall at Kurau river basin. The SDSM has been calibrated and validated future temperature and rainfall simulation. This study predicted the future rainfall and temperature of Kurau river basin for 30 years (2020-2050). From the result, the minimum temperature from year 2020 to 2035 is expected to be within the range of 21 °C to 22.5°C and the maximum temperature will be in the range of 31 °C to 35°C. For the year range 2036 to 2050, the minimum temperature are predicted to be within the range 21 °C to 23°C and the maximum temperature will be the range of 30°C to 36°C. For the rainfall, from the year 2020 to 2035, the average annual rainfall is expected to be 4019 mm/year and 2036 to 2050 predicted to increase continuously reaching 4053.17 mm/year.