How feasible is the life expectancy target in the Saudi Arabian vision for 2030?

Abstract

Background: Over the period 2016–2030, Saudi Arabia seeks to increase life expectancy at birth by 6 years. Aims: The main aim was to analyse the feasibility of this gain using the demographic literature. Methods: The demographic literature on recorded high gains in life expectancy and the determinants of these gains were reviewed. The findings were examined considering the Saudi Arabian context. Results: Explanations covered demographic and behavioural factors, inequalities, health care delivery system, public health provision, health-related policies and advancements in science and technology. However, the crucial factor is the country’s position in the “cardiovascular revolution” (which combines smoking prevalence, obesity, lifestyle and related policies). Conclusion: In countries where life expectancy is in the 70s, average yearly gains are less than 0.31 years, much lower that the Saudi Arabian target of 0.43 years. For Saudi Arabia, an average yearly gain of about half this is achievable provided the fundamental drivers of life expectancy are addressed.