Dynamic life cycle costing based on lifetime prediction

Abstract

Reliable prediction of total product life cycle costs is crucial for the life cycle management of products. These costs are predominantly dictated by the actual operational behaviour of the product's lifetime, and cannot be sufficiently determined through deterministic calculations due to the stochastic and the dynamic nature of the problem. This is specifically true when considering running systems with unknown lifetime and operation parameters. Against this background, the paper presents a dynamic methodology for predicting life cycle costs based on product failure mechanisms, their associated critical lifetime prediction parameters and optional maintenance strategies to enable decision support for product design and use phase strategies. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.