Reduced and normalized carbohydrate antigen 19-9 concentrations after neoadjuvant chemotherapy have comparable prognostic performance in patients with borderline resectable and locally advanced pancreatic cancer

Abstract

Background: The association between optimal carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 concentration after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and prognosis has not been confirmed in patients with borderline resectable (BRPC) and locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). Methods: This retrospective study included 122 patients with BRPC and 103 with LAPC who underwent surgery after NACT between 2012 and 2019 in a tertiary referral center. Prognostic models were established based on relative difference of the CA 19-9 (RDC), with their prognostic performance compared using C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC). Results: CA 19-9 concentrations of 37–1000 U/mL before NACT showed prognostic significance in patients with BRPC and LAPC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.262; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.092–0.748; p = 0.012). Prognostic models in this subgroup showed that RDC was independently prognostic of better overall survival (HR: 0.262; 95% CI: 0.093–0.739; p = 0.011) and recurrence free survival (HR: 0.299; 95% CI: 0.140–0.642; p = 0.002). The prognostic performances of RDC (C-index: 0.653; AIC: 227.243), normalization of CA 19-9 after NACT (C-index: 0.625; AIC: 230.897) and surgery (C-index: 0.613; AIC: 233.114) showed no significant differences. Conclusion: RDC was independently associated with better prognosis after NACT in patients with BRPC or LAPC. Decreased CA19-9 after NACT was a prognostic indicator of better survival and recurrence, as was normalization of CA 19-9 after both NACT and surgery.