Evaluation of peak ground acceleration for the city of Kerman through seismic hazard analysis

Abstract

In this paper, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) approach is used to evaluate the distribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and its corresponding probabilities for Kerman region in S-E of Iran. The geological and seismological data are integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the region. Historical and instrumental earthquake data, geology, tectonics, fault activity, and seismic source models associated with seismic events are taken into account. Foreshocks and aftershocks are rationally eliminated, and main shock records are used to evaluate seismicity parameters using Kijko method. The use of such a method is advantageous since it accounts for incomplete or inaccurate seismic data related to various seismic sources in the region. CRISIS2007 software is also used to carry out seismic hazard analysis for the region and to develop the maps of iso-acceleration contours for various return periods. The results have been displayed as the probabilistic estimates of PGA for the return periods of 50, 75, and 475 years. Comparing the results obtained here with those suggested by the Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic-Resistant Design of Buildings (Standard No. 2800 Version 1393) is also carried out. Results obtained in this study provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps.