[Prognostic value of clinical and parasitological signs for severe malaria in patients from Colombia].

Abstract

Early recognition of danger signs in patients with malaria can reduce complications and deaths, but little is known about their prognostic value for severe malaria, especially in areas of low transmission and unstable malaria. To assess the prognostic value for severity of different clinical and parasitological signs in patients with malaria. A prospective cohort of patients from five municipalities in Colombia with diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum or P. vivax malaria in whom the association between clinical and parasitological signs with complicated malaria was studied. A predictive model with 47.4% sensitivity, 92.8% specificity, 63.2% positive predictive value and 87.1% negative predictive value was obtained which includes jaundice, dark urine, hyperpyrexia and signs of dehydration. To impact the morbidity of complicated proposed a strategy is proposed for the early recognition of danger signs by non-medical personnel, which could be complemented by other elements of health care, such as providing adequate and appropriate antimalarial treatment. Diagnostic criteria for moderate complication are also proposed.