Determination of suitable areas for the generation of wind energy in Germany: Potential areas of the present and future

Abstract

Shortly after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, the Federal Government of Germany decided to change the structure of the country's energy supply system by ending nuclear energy conversion and strongly promoting the development of renewable energies. In order to politically set the course for sustainable energy supply in this time of transition, it is important to analyze the factors influencing the future development of renewable energies. This work contributes to this purpose in the field of onshore wind electricity generation by displaying the temporal development of areas suitable for wind energy use. The availability of such areas is crucial to the extension of sites for wind energy plants. In our approach, the current potential area is determined by excluding areas unsuitable for this kind of electricity generation. For the determination of potential areas of the future, assumptions are made based on the expansion of settlement and traffic areas, and the occupation of protection areas. According to various scenarios, a decline of potential areas between 3% and 8% between 2011 and 2030 is indicated.