Heurísticas y sesgos en el razonamiento probabilístico de los estudiantes de secundaria

Abstract

In this paper the responses of 277 secondary students to 8 test items used in classical studies of probabilistic reasoning (representativeness, equiprobability bias and outcome approach) are analyzed. The study was designed to compare the probabilistic reasoning of two levels of secondary students (14 and 18 year-old students). These groups are compared revealing few differences in their responses, in spite of the second group having had formal instruction in probability. We finally use multivariate analysis to evaluate the dependence among the different heuristics and biases found.