Empirical analysis of the differences in the drivers of fertility between CEE countries and the rest of the EU

Abstract

Our research aims to reveal the key social, economic, and other factors behind the common fertility trends of the CEE countries compared to the rest of Europe over the past decades. A panel analysis was conducted to examine the main (social and economic) determinants of the total fertility rate using the fixed-effect method. The study employs macro-level data from the 27 countries of the European Union with special attention to the 11 CEE countries; the analysed period lasts from 1990 to 2021. The results demonstrate that fertility in the CEE countries is significantly more sensitive to changes in the economic situation, and demographic and social variables related to childbirth have a more pronounced effect on the TFR. In contrast, variables related to the ageing of society seem to be less decisive. Our main academic contribution is to extend the empirical literature on fertility rates in Central and Eastern Europe. There are indeed differences in the determinants of the TFR in Central and Eastern Europe compared to the rest of Europe over the past decades, which allows policymakers to respond more efficiently to changes in the fertility patterns of the region.