Retrospective analysis of the national impact of industrial action by English junior doctors in 2016

Abstract

Objectives To examine the impacts of the four episodes of industrial action by English junior doctors in early 2016. Design Descriptive retrospective study of admitted patient care, accident and emergency (A&E) and outpatient activity in English hospitals. Setting All hospitals across England. Participants All patients who attended A&E or outpatient appointments or those who were admitted to hospital during the 3-week period surrounding each of the four strikes (12 January, 10 February, 9-10 March and 26-27 April, excluding weekends). Main outcome measures Raw numbers and percentage changes of outpatient appointments and cancellations, A&E visits, admitted patients and all inhospital mortality on strike days compared with patient activity on the same weekday in the weeks before and after the strikes. Results There were 3.4 million admissions, 27 million outpatient appointments and 3.4 million A&E attendances over the four 3-week periods analysed. Across the four strikes, there were 31 651 fewer admissions (-9.1%), 23 895 fewer A&E attendances (-6.8%) and 173 462 fewer outpatient appointments (-6.0%) than expected. Additionally, 101 109 more outpatient appointments were cancelled by hospitals than expected (+52%). The 26-27 April strike, where emergency services were also affected, showed the largest impacts on regular service. Mortality did not measurably increase on strike days. Regional analysis showed that services in the Yorkshire and the Humber region were disproportionately more affected by the industrial action. Conclusions Industrial action by junior doctors during early 2016 caused a significant impact on the provision of healthcare provided by English hospitals. We also observed regional variations in how these strikes affected providers.