A system dynamics model for wood-based renewable energy production from degraded land rehabilitation

Abstract

The trend of using wood biomass as a renewable energy source must be supported by a more extensive feedstock through the utilization of degraded land. However, not all regions have information on land potential in the provision of wood biomass. This study aims to develop a system dynamic model that can describe the potential of wood biomass production from degraded land rehabilitation. The main steps include problem identification, mapping causal loop diagrams, integrating mathematical models in a stock and flow diagram, evaluating the model, and simulating the conditions in the next 20 years based on existing conditions and three alternatives of policies scenarios. The result showed that all scenarios able to reduce the degraded land area by 16%. Energy wood plantations can reduce the number of unemployed by half of the simulated amount while applying a moderate, optimistic, or very optimistic scenario, the number of unemployed will only be a quarter left in 2040. The optimistic scenario was considered to be applied in the rehabilitation of degraded land. The expected goals must be supported by the use of superior seedlings and effective forestry extension by increasing the number of extension officers and extension assistants.