RAND and the Information Evolution: A History in Essays and Vignettes

Abstract

Both the price of petroleum motor fuels and concerns regarding emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are driving attention to possible substitutes. In 2008, the world price of oil reached record highs after being adjusted for inflation, continuing a pattern of price increases over sev- eral years. Petroleum products derived from conventional crude oil constitute more than 50 percent of end-use energy deliveries in the United States and more than 95 percent of all energy used in the U.S. transportation sector. Emissions from the consumption of petroleum account for 44 percent of the nations CO2 Both the price of petroleum motor fuels and concerns regarding emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions resulting from transportation-fuel use (EIA, 2007a). Commonly considered alterna- tive transportation-fuel options for the near and medium terms (roughly 1020 years) include both biomass-based fuels (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel) and unconventional fossil-based liquid fuels derived from such sources as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shale, and coal liquefaction. In this report, RAND researchers assess the potential future production levels, produc- are driving attention to possible substitutes. In 2008, the world price of oil reached emissions, with approximately 33 percent of national CO2 tion costs, greenhouse gases (GHGs), and other environmental implications of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from oil sands and transportation fuels produced via coal liquefaction (often referred to as coal-to-liquids CTL). Production of liquid fuels from a combination of coal and biomass is also considered. Although oil shale is also an important potential uncon- ventional fossil resource, we do not address it in this report because fundamental uncertainty remains about the technology that could ultimately be used for large-scale extraction, as well as about its cost and environmental implications. Te omission from this report of renewable fuel options and other propulsion technologies should not be interpreted as a conclusion that the fossil-based options are superior to others.1