Emerging Risks: Methodology, Classification and Policy Implications

Abstract

Good risk governance seems to rest on the three components: knowledge, legally prescribed procedures and social values. All three components are of particular importance for assessing and managing emerging risks, which are characterized by a lack of knowledge about the likelihood and magnitude of potential positive and negative consequences. This paper reports first about a protocol of how to govern emerging risks and then analyses the patterns of risks that would fall under the emerging risk category. Six patterns were identified: system breakdown risks, amplifier risks, highly volatile and pervasive risks, psychosomatic risks, social risks, and knowledge management risks. For each of these risk patterns, the main characteristics and the policy implications are described and analyzed.