Abortion Bans and Interstate Migration

Abstract

The Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling created a patchwork of abortion regulations across the U.S. Proponents of federalism argue that the easy exit option federalism entails allows people to flee areas that restrict rights. We ask whether people flee or avoid moving to states with abortion bans. We argue that dislike of abortion bans is strongest among those directly affected (women, doctors), the affluent, and the highly educated, and that these groups are also most likely to factor abortion bans into their mobility calculations. We test these arguments using experimental and observational data. A conjoint experiment shows that strict abortion laws make people, especially women, less likely to “accept” jobs in states with them. Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data shows that residents did not become more likely to exit states with abortion bans after Dobbs. However, college graduates and women of childbearing age in states with abortion bans became relatively more likely to relocate to non-ban states, while being affluent or a non-college graduate had the opposite effect. Finally, analysis of medical residency application data shows that, after Dobbs, there were significantly fewer residency applications to states with abortion bans.