Forecasting Methods Comparation Based on Seasonal Patterns for Predicting Medicine Needs with ARIMA Method, Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the needs of medicines by using forecasting techniques and calculating the value of Economic Order Quantities. Fluctuations in the use of drugs that occur every year is an obstacle for the drug warehouse in planning procurement in hospitals. The method used in this study is ARIMA time series forecasting for the process of prediction and calculation of EOQ. The results of this study in the form of an estimated value of drug needs for one coming period is shown by the smallest forecasting error value, namely ARIMA (1.0.0) with an error value of 13%, and the results of calculations of the Quantity of Economic Order for future drug needs. Forecasting results between ARIMA and the Exponential Smoothing method show that forecasting has the smallest error value, using ARIMA (1.0.0).