The three seas initiative: Geographical determinants, geopolitical foundations, and prospective challenges

Abstract

The Three Seas (Baltic-Adriatic-Black) Initiative was originally rationalised as a geopolitical alliance of NATO/EU member states of “New Europe”, from Estonia to Croatia, connecting the Baltic and Adriatic Seas. The member states, with the exception of Austria, share certain common denominators, such as communist history and NATO membership, prior to EU membership. The idea resembles the geopolitical idea of Intermarium, which was envisioned as a federation of independent Central and Eastern European states, based mostly on the ethnic principle. At present day, the Initiative is also intended to contain the influence of Russia and pull the states between EU/NATO and Russia out of the Russian sphere of influence. The post-communist NATO/EU member states are bandwagoning towards the U.S. and perceive NATO as the guarantor of their security. The Three Seas Initiative represents a geopolitical wedge between EU/Bruxelles and Moscow or, in geopolitical and historical terms, between Germany and Russia.