Target2: How costly is buying time?

Abstract

The article assesses the real costs and profits of German claims on the Eurosystem through TARGET2. While Germany's nominal profits from holding TARGET2 claims depend on the development of the nominal interest rate, the real profits are determined by the real interest rate as well as the real exchange rate. The article finds that at the end of 2014, Germany faced current costs of approximately EUR 17 billion in real terms. Calculating the costs and profits of every member country in the euro area reveals that the TARGET2 system mirrors an implicit distribution mechanism, with a volume of approximately EUR 40 billion. The results underline the aspect that even without a euro area breakup or exit of one member country, holding TARGET2 claims can cause high economic costs in real terms.