Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

Abstract

Change of global monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of seven coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) the annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10 and 5 %, respectively; (2) the monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer–minus–winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) the monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land–ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land–ocean and North–South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.