Confidence modeling with reliability: a systems approach to sustainable energy planning

Abstract

Background: Energy systems planning has played a strong role in setting up the framework for developing longterm policies of energy activities to help guide the future of a local, regional or national energy system. However, the planning process is complicated with a variety of uncertainties and complexities. In this study, a fuzzy confidence model coupled with mixedinteger programming was proposed for regional energy systems planning. Results: Application of the model to a hypothetical case indicated that the model was capable of handling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and taking capacityexpansion issues of energy facilities into consideration. The solutions from the proposed model could meet system constraints at different confidence levels, where each confidence level was further associated with different reliability scenarios. Conclusions: The proposed model could help decision makers analyze the tradeoffs between system economy and reliability, and explore costeffective energy systems planning strategies under uncertainty.