The influence of transient surface fluxes on North Atlantic overturning in a coupled GCM climate change experiment

Abstract

The mechanism by which the model-simulated North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in response to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is investigated through the use of a set of five multi-century experiments. Using a coarse resolution version of the GFDL coupled climate model, the role of various surface fluxes in weakening the THC is assessed. Changes in net surface freshwater fluxes (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from land) are found to be the dominant cause for the model's THC weakening. Surface heat flux changes brought about by rising GHG levels also contribute to THC weakening, but are of secondary importance. Wind stress variations have negligible impact on the THC's strength in the transient GHG experiment.