Flood generating mechanisms investigation and rainfall threshold identification for regional flood early warning

Abstract

A cost effective and easily applied methodological approach for the identification of the main factors involved in flood generation mechanisms and the development of rainfall threshold for incorporation in flood early warning systems at regional scale is proposed. The methodology was tested at the Pinios upstream flood-prone area in Greece. High frequency monitoring rainfall and water level/discharge time-series were investigated statistically. Based on the results, the study area is impacted by “long-rain floods” triggered by several days long and low-intensity precipitation events in the mountainous areas, that saturate the catchment and cause high flow conditions. Time lag between the peaks of rainfall and water level was 17–25 h. The relationship between cumulative rainfall R sum on the mountainous areas and maximum water level MaxWL of the river at the particular river site can be expressed as: MaxWL = 1.55ln(R sum) − 3.70 and the rainfall threshold estimated for the mountainous stations can be expressed as: R sum = 20.4*D 0.3, where D is the duration of the event. The effect of antecedent moisture conditions prior each event was limited to the decrease of the time lag between rainfall and water level response. The limitations of the specific methodological approach are related to the uncertainties that arise due to the other variables contributing to the complex flood generating mechanisms not considered (e.g., the effect of snowmelt and air temperature, soil characteristics, the contribution of tributaries, or the inadequate maintenance of river network that may cause debris accumulation and river bank failure).