Asymmetric Biotic Interactions Cannot Be Inferred Without Accounting for Priority Effects

Abstract

Understanding biotic interactions is a crucial goal in community ecology and species distribution modelling, and large strides have been made towards improving multivariate computational methods with the aim of quantifying biotic interactions and improving predictions of species occurrence. Yet, while considerable attention has been given to computational approaches and the interpretation of these quantitative tools, the importance of sampling design to reveal these biotic interactions has received little consideration. This study explores the influential role of priority effects, that is, the order of habitat colonisation, in shaping our ability to detect biotic interactions. Using a simple set of simulations, we demonstrate that commonly used cross-sectional co-occurrence data alone cannot be used to make reliable inferences on asymmetric biotic interactions, even if they perform well in predicting the occurrence of species. We then show how sampling designs that consider priority effects can recover the asymmetric effects that are lost when priority effects are ignored. Based on these findings, we urge for caution when drawing inferences on biotic interactions from cross-sectional binary co-occurrence data, and provide guidance on sampling designs that may provide the necessary data to tackle this longstanding challenge.