CESCProg: a compact prognostic model and nomogram for cervical cancer based on miRNA biomarkers

Abstract

Cervical squamous cell carcinoma, more commonly cervical cancer, is the fourth common cancer among women worldwide with substantial burden of disease, and less-invasive, reliable and effective methods for its prognosis are necessary today. Micro-RNAs are increasingly recognized as viable alternative biomarkers for direct diagnosis and prognosis of disease conditions, including various cancers. In this work, we addressed the problem of systematically developing an miRNA-based nomogram for the reliable prognosis of cervical cancer. Towards this, we preprocessed public-domain miRNA -omics data from cervical cancer patients, and applied a cascade of filters in the following sequence: (i) differential expression criteria with respect to controls; (ii) significance with univariate survival analysis; (iii) passage through dimensionality reduction algorithms; and (iv) stepwise backward selection with multivariate Cox modeling. This workflow yielded a compact prognostic DEmiR signature of three miRNAs, namely hsa-miR-625-5p, hs-miR-95-3p, and hsa-miR-330-3p, which were used to construct a risk-score model for the classification of cervical cancer patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The risk-score model was subjected to evaluation on an unseen test dataset, yielding a one-year AUROC of 0.84 and five-year AUROC of 0.71. The model was validated on an out-of-domain, external dataset yielding significantly worse prognosis for high-risk patients. The risk-score was combined with significant features of the clinical profile to establish a predictive prognostic nomogram. Both the miRNA-based risk score model and the integrated nomogram are freely available for academic and not-for-profit use at CESCProg, a web-app (https://apalania.shinyapps.io/cescprog).