Rainfall Change Projections under Different Climate Change Scenarios in UAE

Abstract

The increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities is predicted to have significant and lasting effects on the global climate throughout the 21st century. The resulting warming over the past decades has caused various hydrologic and landscape reactions, which may continue and accelerate without proper strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate changes due to greenhouse gases have been observed across the world, including in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Arabian Gulf region. Changes in precipitation patterns can have severe consequences for natural and human systems as precipitation is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. As the UAE is highly susceptible to climate change, it is necessary to investigate potential local impacts in-depth to develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation patterns in the UAE under different climate change scenarios, using statistically downscaled results from global climate models (GCMs) and considering two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study period ranges from 2021 to 2100 and compares it to the observed historical period of 1982 to 2011. The analysis examines precipitation changes at monthly and annual scales. Based on selected GCMs under the two RCPs, the average annual rainfall in the UAE is expected to change by -61% to 88%. This study emphasizes the importance of assessing potential impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns in vulnerable regions such as the UAE and the need to develop adaptation strategies to mitigate these potential impacts.