Predicting Diabetes and Estimating Its Economic Burden in China Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Abstract

Objectives: To predict the number of people with diabetes and estimate the economic burden in China. Methods: Data from natural logarithmic transformation of the number of people with diabetes in China from 2000 to 2018 were selected to fit the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and 2019 data were used to test it. The bottom-up and human capital approaches were chosen to estimate the direct and indirect economic burden of diabetes respectively. Results: The number of people with diabetes in China would increase in the future. The ARIMA model fitted and predicted well. The number of people with diabetes from 2020 to 2025 would be about 94, 96, 97, 98, 99 and 100 m respectively. The economic burden of diabetes from 2019 to 2025 would be about $156b, $160b, $163b, $165b, $167b, $169b and $170b respectively. Conclusion: The situation of diabetes in China is serious. The ARIMA model can be used to predict the number of people with diabetes. We should allocate health resources in a rational manner to improve the prevention and control of diabetes.