Housing Price Research Based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Based on the theory of system dynamics, a system dynamics model regarding to housing price is constructed. The changes on housing price are simulated via Vensim DSS software, and the effectiveness of the model is verified. Policy regulation experiments are conducted from the prospective of population, land and taxation that are mostly concerned by the government. It can be concluded that the land policy and taxation policy are the main methods for regulation. It provides macro-direction for the government to manage the commercial housing market and control the price of commercial residential house, as well as corresponding decision basis for house purchasers and commercial housing developers in their purchasing and investing. It also provides a systematic prediction method for the comprehensive simulation system of the commercial housing market.