The Ukraine Crisis: Why and What Now?

Abstract

Having rebuilt its military, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and has now positioned more than 100,000 troops on its borders, challenging NATO’s supposed encirclement of Russia and its military capabilities in Central Europe. The West has responded with threats of unprecedented sanctions. This crisis stems from the Soviet Union’s collapse and the West’s effort to create a ‘Europe whole and free’ and at peace. The West failed to convince Russia to play a positive role in Europe and to help it do so. NATO declared that Ukraine and Georgia, on Russia’s borders, would someday become Alliance members. Nevertheless, the US and NATO are conducting serious diplomacy with Russia. Confidence-building measures, including on conventional forces, are the best alternative to confrontation. A new cold war will benefit no one, Russia least of all.