Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought in the Arid Region of Northwestern China during 1950-2012

Abstract

There are water resource shortages and frequent drought disasters in the arid region of northwestern China (ARNC). The purpose of this study is to understand the spatiotemporal variations of the droughts in this region and to further estimate future changes. Multiple drought indexes such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) are used to investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the ARNC drought from 1950 to 2012. Our results indicate the following: (1) The drought indexes exhibit significant increasing trends, and the highest drought frequency occurred in the 1960s, followed by a decreasing trend during the next few decades. All four seasons exhibit a wet trend, with a higher drought frequency in summer than in the other seasons. (2) The changes of the drought indexes in the ARNC also exhibit distinct spatial variations, with a wet trend in the subregions of North Xinjiang (NXJ), the Tianshan Mountains (TS), South Xinjiang (SXJ), and the Qilian Mountains (QL), but with a dry trend in the subregions of the Hexi Corridor (HX) and the western part of Inner Mongolia (WIM). (3) There was a major climate variability in the ARNC that occurred in the 1980s, and there were dry and wet climate oscillation periods of 8a, 17a, and >20a.