The Multi-Scale Interactions of Atmospheric Phenomenon in Mean and Extreme Precipitation

Abstract

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, which in combination with rising population enhances exposure to major floods. An improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that cause extreme precipitation events would help to advance predictions and projections of such events. To date, such analyses have typically been performed rather unsystematically and over limited areas (e.g., the U.S.) which has resulted in contradictory findings. Here we present the Multi-Object Analysis of Atmospheric Phenomenon algorithm that uses a set of 12 common atmospheric variables to identify and track tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, cut-off lows, frontal zones, anticyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs), jets, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and equatorial waves. We apply the algorithm to global historical data between 2001–2020 and associate phenomena with hourly and daily satellite-derived extreme precipitation estimates in major climate regions. We find that MCSs produce the vast majority of extreme precipitation in the tropics and some mid-latitude land regions, while extreme precipitation in mid and high-latitude ocean and coastal regions are dominated by cyclones and ARs. Importantly, most extreme precipitation events are associated with phenomena interacting across scales that intensify precipitation. These interactions are a function of the intensity (i.e., rarity) of extreme events. The presented methodology and results could have wide-ranging applications including training of machine learning methods, Lagrangian-based evaluation of climate models, and process-based understanding of extreme precipitation in a changing climate.