Research on self-organizing evolution level of China’s photovoltaic industry chain system

Abstract

According to the self-organizing theory, we first constructed an index system of the self-organizing evolution level of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry chain system from two aspects: of development level and synergy level. Furthermore, according to the relevant data of China’s PV industry, the self-organizing evolution level of the system from 2008 to 2017 was measured and evaluated by using the system evolution level measurement model and cloud model. Finally, the GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the self-organizing evolution level of the system from 2018 to 2022. The results show that the overall self-organizing evolution level of China’s PV industry chain system shows a rising trend in the ten years from 2008 to 2017, gradually transitioning from a low evolution level to a relatively low evolution level, with the evolution level declining in 2012 and 2015. It is expected that the self-organizing evolution level will continue to maintain a stable and orderly growth trend in the next five years, entering a medium evolution level stage from 2021. If the current evolution speed can be maintained, it is expected to reach a self-organizing evolution state in the next 20 years or so.