Risk Field of Rock Instability Using Microseismic Monitoring Data in Deep Mining

Abstract

With the gradual depletion of surface resources, rock instability caused by deep high stress and mining disturbance seriously affects safe mining. To create effective risk management, a rock instability risk field model using microseismic monitoring data is proposed in this study. Rock instability risk was presented visually in 3D visualization. The in-situ microseismic monitoring data was collected and analyzed to make calculation of peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), energy flux, energy and seismic moment. Indicator weights of PGV, PGA, energy flux are confirmed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate risk severity. The Copula function is then used to solve the joint probability distribution function of energy and seismic moment. Then the spatial distribution characteristics of risk can be obtained by data fitting. Subsequently, the three-dimensional (3D) risk field model was established. Meanwhile, the established risk field is verified by comparing monitoring data without disturbance and the blasting data with disturbance. It is suggested that the proposed risk field method could evaluate the regional risk of rock instability reasonably and accurately, which lays a theoretical foundation for the risk prediction and management of rock instability in deep mining.