Modelling lung cancer diagnostic pathways using discrete event simulation

Abstract

The United Kingdom has one of the poorest lung cancer survival rates in Europe. In this study, to help design and evaluate a single lung cancer pathway (SCP) for Wales, existing diagnostic pathways and processes have been mapped and then modelled with a discrete event simulation. The validated models have been used to provide key performance indicators and to examine different diagnostic testing strategies. Under the current diagnostic pathways, the mean time to treatment was 72 days for surgery patients, 56 days for chemotherapy patients, and 61 days for radiotherapy patients. Our research demonstrated that by ensuring that the patient attends their first outpatient appointment within 7 days and streamlining the diagnostic tests would have the potential to remove approximately 11 days from the current lung cancer pathway resulting in a 21% increase in patients receiving treatment within the Welsh Government set target of 62 days.