Variability and Trends of PM2.5 Across Different Climatic Zones in Saudi Arabia: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Abstract

Atmospheric fine particles (PM2.5) pose significant health risks by penetrating deep into the lungs and causing respiratory and cardiovascular issues. In Saudi Arabia, high PM2.5 levels are driven by its geographic location and extreme climate. Therefore, analysis of PM2.5 spatiotemporal variability is crucial for understanding its causes, impacts, and effective management. This study analyzed MERRA-2 reanalysis PM2.5 data for 23 years (2001–2023). MERRA-2 data were validated with in situ observations in terms of several statistical metrics, including RMSE, FAC2, MAE, and Correlation Coefficient. The results revealed a significant spatial variation in PM2.5 levels, with higher concentrations observed in the eastern and southeastern regions and lower concentrations observed in the western and northwestern regions, a trend confirmed by ground-level observations. Employing the robust Theil–Sen technique, temporal trends in PM2.5 concentrations indicated an overall decreasing trend over the study period. At most sites, PM2.5 levels increased until 2010 and then started decreasing, probably due to government interventions for reducing emissions, combating desertification, and enhancing tree plantations. Non-linear modeling provided a more accurate representation of complex trends compared to simple linear models. The findings underscore the need for continued national and regional efforts to mitigate PM2.5 pollution by addressing its emission sources.