On the Safe-Haven Ability of Bitcoin, Gold, and Commodities for International Stock Markets: Evidence from Spillover Index Analysis

Abstract

Stock market is susceptible to various external shocks for its tight dependence on economic fundamentals, financial speculation, and fragile emotions in massive traders, making it a very risky market for investors. In this paper, we aim to identify whether commonly recognized safe-haven assets, that is, bitcoin, gold, and commodities, can provide investors with effective hedging utility in international stock markets, especially during periods of extreme market turbulence. By using the spillover index method based on the TVP-VAR model, we find that firstly, bitcoin, gold, and commodities can only offer weak hedging effects on stock markets. Furthermore, their abilities to act as a safe haven are ranked as: commodities > gold > bitcoin. Secondly, in general, we have observed the increasing hedging ability of these safe-haven assets in times of extreme market turmoil. Thirdly, among international stock and safe-haven asset markets, the world and the developed stock markets act as the net spillover transmitters, while bitcoin, gold, and commodities are the net recipients. Lastly, the total spillover effects are time-varying and increase significantly after the outbreak of extreme events.