Real-Time Prediction of the Water Accumulation Process of Urban Stormy Accumulation Points Based on Deep Learning

Abstract

Influenced by climate change and urbanization, urban flood frequently occurs and represents a serious challenge for many cities. Therefore, it is necessary to generate refined predictions of urban floods, such as the prediction of water accumulation processes at water accumulation points, which is of great significance for supporting water-related managers to reduce flood losses. In this study, 16 combination schemes of rainfall sensitivity indicators were used to determine the optimal scheme for predicting the depth of accumulated water, and the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithm in deep learning was used to build a prediction model of the accumulation process of urban stormy accumulation points. Among the 16 schemes, the relative error of scheme 1 is 15.39%, and the qualified rate is 92.86%. This scheme exhibits the highest accuracy for the prediction results of water accumulation depth. Given this finding, the GBDT algorithm was used to construct a regression prediction model of the water accumulation process based on the collected historical rainfall water accumulation data of 50 water accumulation points. The results demonstrated that the GBDT regression prediction model has a mean relative error of 19.77%, a qualified rate of 82.00%, and a peak average relative error of 5.48%, which verify the validity and applicability of the model for the real-time prediction of the process of water accumulation.