Assessing Supplier Disruption Risks Using a Modified Pythagorean Fuzzy SWARA–TOPSIS Approach

Abstract

As the complexity and uncertainty of global supply chains escalate, disruptions have become an increasingly common challenge in supply chain management. Suppliers, who serve as essential connectors for the seamless movement of goods and materials critical to production and distribution, are often at the center of these disruptions, highlighting their significant impact on the overall stability of the supply chain. This study proposes an innovative approach to assessing supplier disruption risks by combining the Pythagorean Fuzzy Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (PF-SWARA) with the Pythagorean Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (PF-TOPSIS). By reviewing the literature and consulting with supply chain experts, eight key risk factors were identified. The PF-SWARA method then quantifies the significance of these risks, while a modified PFTOPSIS technique calculates each supplier’s risk score, facilitating the prioritization of suppliers for targeted improvement. The findings of the study indicate that “natural disasters and geopolitical risks,” “financial instability,” and “delivery delays” emerge as the top three critical disruption risk factors. Suppliers facing higher disruption risks should therefore formulate improvement strategies that target these three areas.