The return of nuclear great power politics (or why we stopped worrying about terrorists and the bomb)

Abstract

With the decline of the Western framing of the war on terror (WoT) in security discourse, it has become commonplace to note the ‘return’ of great power politics. But under-analysed so far have been the nuclear dimensions of this trend. This is important because we are on the cusp of a multipolar order where the ‘poles of power’ are nuclear-armed. We outline the ways in which almost 30 years of perceptions of unipolarity, and particularly the focus on ‘rogue’ and non-state (nuclear) terrorism post 9/11 on the part of Western policy practitioners, analysts, and scholars, allowed for the previous focus on the threat of nuclear war to be supplanted by a wider ‘nuclear security’ agenda. We unpack the return of nuclear threats and risk-taking in the Euro-Atlantic, the nuclear deterrence balance in the Western Pacific, and the emergence of a nonaligned nuclear great power in the Global South. While we argue that managing the dangers of the return of nuclear great power politics will require a dual approach drawing lessons from both from the Cold War ‘balance of terror’ and from an earlier era of a multipolar ‘balance of power’, many key dynamics from the WoT years remain.