Prognostic indicators of recurrence of bacterial vaginosis

Abstract

Following all forms of therapy for bacterial vaginosis (BV), recurrence rates are extremely high. Many diagnostic tests are available that differentiate bacterial vaginosis from other types of vaginal disorders, but none predict recurrence after treatment, nor are any vetted for monitoring ongoing responses to treatment. Our goal was to determine which tests, and at what optimal times, have prognostic value in predicting recurrence. This prospective cohort study monitored 74 highly recurrent BV patients for up to 9 months. Symptomatic BV patients were treated with oral metronidazole and were evaluated at cessation of treatment and monthly. Index tests included Amsel, Nugent, BV Blue, and Affirm VPIII, as well as a quantitative PCR (qPCR)-based test under initial evaluation here. The qPCR-based LbRC (Lactobacillus Relative Composition) assay predicted BV recurrence when performed shortly after oral metronidazole treatment, with both 90% positive predictive values (PPV) and 74% negative predictive values (NPV); the Nugent scores had 93% PPV but poor NPV (57%). No test, at any other visit, was prognostic. The LbRC assay and, to a lesser extent, Nugent tests scored a week after oral metronidiazole predicted recurrence, suggesting that the recurrence in this cohort was predominantly by relapse due to incomplete restoration of eubiosis soon after therapy. This is the first study in an under evaluated population of recurrent BV patients that emphasizes the need for and a pathway to a possible prognostic modality. Given the high recurrence rates of BV, prognostic tests that could influence individualized treatment alternatives are urgently needed.