Study on the interactive mechanism of economic growth, inflation and capital markets using dynamic Bayesian factor graph

Abstract

With the deepening of economic globalization and financial liberation, capitalization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship between economic growth and inflation. In consideration of the evolvement from the period of industrialization to economic financialisation of the U.S., through the Bayesian network learning of rolling time window, the study concentrate on the dynamic transmission mechanism between economic growth, inflation and capital markets. It turns out that the interactive relationship between capital markets and economic operation is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, in the order of bond, stock and real estate markets, indicators related to capital markets gradually enter into the transmission mechanism of economic growth and inflation. Key words: Economic growth, inflation, capital markets, Bayesian network.