Shifting Power Dynamics in South Asia: The Geopolitical Impact of China’s CPEC on Regional Rivalries

Abstract

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has emerged as a pivotal force in reshaping South Asia’s geopolitical architecture since its inception in 2013. Extending over 3,000 km from China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, CPEC not only serves as a critical economic artery for Pakistan but also represents a strategic fulcrum in China’s pursuit of regional and global influence. This study adopts a neoclassical realism framework to explore the interplay between systemic drivers—such as China’s geostrategic aspirations—and domestic-level factors shaping CPEC’s evolution. While China views CPEC as a gateway to securing energy routes and expanding its regional footprint, Pakistan increasingly relies on the corridor to address its developmental and infrastructural deficits. Through the lens of Economic Interdependence Theory, the paper evaluates Pakistan’s growing economic reliance on China, juxtaposed against internal political and security vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, it examines India’s strategic calculus, focusing on sovereignty-related objections, especially in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and broader efforts to offset China’s influence via alternative connectivity frameworks and enhanced regional partnerships. Ultimately, CPEC is more than a transnational infrastructure project; it symbolizes the deepening China-Pakistan axis and encapsulates the evolving great-power rivalries in South Asia, functioning both as a development driver and a geopolitical flashpoint.