Forecasting Dendrolimus sibiricus Outbreaks: Data Analysis and Genetic Programming-Based Predictive Modeling

Abstract

This study presents an approach to forecast outbreaks of Dendrolimus sibiricus, a significant pest affecting taiga ecosystems. Leveraging comprehensive datasets encompassing climatic variables and forest attributes from 15,000 taiga parcels in the Krasnoyarsk Krai region, we employ genetic programming-based predictive modeling. Our methodology utilizes Random Forest algorithm to develop robust forecasting model through integrated data analysis techniques. By optimizing hyperparameters within the predictive model, we achieved heightened accuracy, reaching a maximum precision of 0.9941 in forecasting pest outbreaks up to one year in advance.