Assessment of fatal road traffic crashes in Turkey

Abstract

In Turkey, thousands of people die in road traffic accidents and hundreds of thousands are injured every year. This study aims to quantify the fatal traffic accident problem in Turkey. Quantifying the scale of the problem will direct the attention of decision-makers and related authorities in Turkey to tackle the traffic accidents’ problem. To accomplish these objectives, accidents’ data from 2009 through 2019 were used. The characteristics of fatal traffic accidents were investigated and models were developed. The accuracy of the model’s performance was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error and the Coefficient of Determination. The results showed that about (9%) of total accidents have resulted in human casualties. The analysis revealed that mistakes of drivers and pedestrians caused 88% and 8% of the total accidents respectively. Drivers' mistakes included violations of the speed limit, right of way and maneuvering rules. The developed models showed a strong correlation between the numbers of injuries and vehicles’ km/year (R2 = 0.84). Finally, the number of casualties in the last two years, showed a decrease as a result of a drop in the mobility rate of heavy vehicles in addition to a slowdown in the growth rate of registered vehicles.