EFFECT OF NORTH AMERICAN TRADE AGREEMENTS ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FROM MEXICO TO THE UNITED STATES

Abstract

International trade has historically driven trade flows and strengthened national capacities. However, the impact of trade agreements between Mexico and the United States is neither clear nor conclusive, at least on agricultural issues. Through a cointegration analysis using an error correction model, the work seeks to assess the effects of nafta and usmca on agricultural exports from Mexico to the US during 1980-2021. Despite nafta not having a significant effect on the level of these exports, the usmca is having both direct and indirect effects (through the real exchange rate) on them. We concluded that usmca may change the inertia of recent years in agricultural export levels, provided the provisions of the treaty are adhered to.