Modeling the spread of Covid-19 pandemic: case of Morocco

Abstract

This paper is establishing the relationship between the spreading dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic in Morocco and the efficiency of the measures and actions taken by public authorities to contain it. The main objective is to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco and to estimate the time needed for its disappearance. For these reasons, we have highlighted the role of mathematical models in understanding the transmission chain of this virus as well as its future evolution. Then we used the SIR epidemiological model, which proves to be well suited to address this issue. It shows that identification of the key parameters of this pandemic, such as the probability of transmission, should help to adequately explain its behaviour and make it easier to predict its progress. As a result, the measures and actions taken by the public authorities in Morocco allowed to record lower number of virus reproduction than many countries. So, in the case of Morocco, we were able to predict that the Covid-19 pandemic should disappear in a shorter time and without registering a larger number of infected individuals compared to other countries.