A climate-impact-related transport infrastructure risk assessment for the City of Cape Town

Abstract

Climate-related severe weather events pose a threat to transport infrastructure. Damage to transport infrastructure, in turn, threatens access to socio-economic opportunities (such as employment, healthcare and education). The aim of this paper is to quantify the volume of transport infrastructure at risk of weather-related hazards in the City of Cape Town, and to estimate the direct economic value thereof. Geographical Information Systems are used to overlay areas that are highly exposed to climate-related threats on the city’s transport network and infrastructure, enabling the identification and quantification of the volume of infrastructure at risk. Cost estimates for the rehabilitation or reconstruction of this infrastructure obtained from various experts in the South African transport arena are applied to calculate the economic value of the infrastructure at risk. In total, the transport infrastructure at high risk in the case city is valued at R20 billion. Fires and coastal flooding pose the greatest threat. The analysis presented can inform planners and decision-makers on how to improve the resilience and where to reduce the vulnerability of transport infrastructure in the city.