Meteorological drought and its relationship with southern oscillation index (SOI)

Abstract

Drought monitoring, including its severity, spatial, and duration is essential to enhance resilience towards drought, particularly for overcoming drought risk management and mitigation plan. The present study has an objective to examine the suitability of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PN) on assessing drought event by analyzing their relationship with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The monthly rainfall data over twenty years of the observation period were used as a basis for data input in the drought index calculation. The statistical association analyses, included the Pearson Correlation (r), Kendal tau (τ), and Spearman rho (rs) used to assess the relationship between the monthly drought indexes and SOI. The present study confirmed that the SPI showed a more consistent and regular pattern relationship with SOI basis which was indicated by a moderately high determination coefficient (R2) of 0.74 and the magnitude of r, τ, and rs that were of 0.861, 0.736, and 0.896, respectively. Accordingly, the SPI showed better compatibility than the PN for estimating drought characteristics. The study also revealed that the SOI data could be used as a variable to determine the reliability of drought index results.