The impact of El Niño phenomenon on dry forest-dependent communities' welfare in the northern coast of Peru

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of El Niño phenomenon on dry forest-dependent populations in northern Peru. First, we identified the districts within and outside the dry forest regions in the Peruvian departments of Piura, Tumbes, and Lambayeque. Second, using the Coastal El Niño index (ICEN), we classified, according to severity, the Coastal El Niño in this region in the 2008–2016 period. We used an econometric model called triple difference (DDD) to prove that after a Coastal El Niño, rural communities that depend on dry forests are 5% less likely to be poor than those not located in dry forest areas. This result demonstrates how important these forests are in reducing the vulnerability of these populations to a Coastal El Niño and justifies the importance of promoting the sustainable use of this ecosystem.